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"It's pretty evident that the jobs market and the consumer are doing OK. Claims are still very, very low," he said. If claims are up to mid-250,000 by year's end, "that's a fairly obvious sign that there's a loosening of the labor market." "The question everyone's asking is: can yields continue to rise further and at what point are yields going to cause some serious damage on the economy?" The dollar index fell 0.234%, with the euro up 0.25% at $1.0529. All 11 sectors of the S&P index were in the red, with the big megacap growth stocks leading the decline.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Wall, Mike Sanders, Baylee Wakefield, Brent, Dennis Kissler, Elizabeth Howcroft, Elaine Hardcastle, Sharon Singleton, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Madison Investments, Labor Department, Reuters, Aviva Investors, Treasury, Bank of Japan, Analysts, Bank of, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, BOK, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Madison , Wisconsin, Bank of Japan

REUTERS/Staff/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 5 (Reuters) - European stocks rose on Thursday, after a plunge in oil prices and softer U.S. labour data late on Wednesday helped bring U.S. Treasury yields back down from 16-year highs. European government bond yields were mixed, with the benchmark 10-year German yield up 2 basis points at 2.921% . "The question everyone’s asking is: can yields continue to rise further and at what point are yields going to cause some serious damage on the economy?” said Baylee Wakefield, a portfolio manager at Aviva Investors. ING FX analysts cautioned in a client note that markets may be putting too much weight on Wednesday's private payrolls data. In currencies, the U.S. dollar index was down 0.1% at 106.530 , off a peak earlier in the week of 107.34.

Persons: ”, Baylee Wakefield, Elizabeth Howcroft, Elaine Hardcastle, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, Wednesday, Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Aviva Investors, Analysts, ING, U.S, Bank of, U.S ., Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, U.S, Bank of Japan, Japan

The European Central Bank last week lifted rates to a record 4% and upgraded its inflation forecast for 2024, but the euro fell and has lost almost 2% against the dollar this month. Overall, Europe's central banks "would like to portray this idea of higher for longer (rates)," said Ed Hutchings, head of rates at Aviva Investors. The currency, which the central bank labeled "unjustifiably weak," barely caught a break and remains near a record low against the euro . He expected one the of big European central banks to be the first to cut rates. European central banks were "in a bind," Fiotakis added, as higher oil prices also threatened to push inflation higher.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Sterling, Kit Juckes, BoE, SocGen's Juckes, Ed Hutchings, Nathan Thooft, Bjoern, Fiotakis, Orla Garvey, Naomi Rovnick, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Sterling, LONDON, Bank of, Swiss, greenback, Societe Generale, European Central Bank, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, Aviva Investors, Investment Management, Reuters, DWS Group, Nomura, ING, Barclays, Federated, Thomson Locations: Swiss, Bank of England, Switzerland, Sweden, Europe, U.S, Western Europe, United States, Britain, Swedish, Japan, European

Sept 20 (Reuters) - Consumer goods firms like Nestle (NESN.S), Lindt (LISN.S) and Unilever (ULVR.L) may face increased pressure across Europe to cut prices after being singled out by French retailers and politicians, industry experts say. France is a crucial country for consumer goods companies, having long outstripped Germany, Italy, Spain and others as the European Union's biggest market for groceries by supermarket revenues, according to research firm IBISWorld. That means consumer groups will face pressure to rein back prices across the European Union. Because these supermarkets are in different countries and do not compete with one another, they often combine forces to negotiate with consumer goods makers. Consumer goods makers have for more than two years grappled with sky-rocketing input, supply chain and labour costs that they have either absorbed - taking a hit to margins - or passed on to retailers.

Persons: It's, Laurent Thoumine, Thoumine, Ferrero's, Pernod Ricard's Ricard, Systeme, Germany's, Switzerland's, Italy's, Philippe Michaud, Leclerc, Bruno Le Maire, Le Maire, Richard Saldanha, Lindt, Saldanha, Richa Naidu, Helen Reid, Matt Scuffham, Catherine Evans Organizations: Consumer, Nestle, Unilever, Carrefour, PepsiCo, European, Reuters, European Union, Epic Partners, French Finance, Aviva Investors, Paris, Thomson Locations: Europe, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Eurelec

☆ For traders, September's ECB move is far from clear cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File PhotoData on Thursday showed euro zone inflation held at 5.3% in August rather than dropping. Overall money supply in the bloc contracted in July for the first time since 2010, demonstrating the extent to which ECB policy has tightened financial conditions. And even if investors are divided on September’s decision, the consensus is that the ECB will be done raising rates soon. Longer-term, markets expect the ECB to start cutting rates by the second quarter of 2024. (This story has been corrected to clarify that Aviva favours a small overweight in European bonds, not longer-dated euro zone bonds, in paragraph 19)

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Kai Pfaffenbach, Piet Christiansen, ’ indecisiveness, ” Christiansen, Isabel Schnabel, Robert Holzmann, ”, Mauro Valle, Valle, Edward Hutchings, Frederik Ducrozet, ” Aviva’s Hutchings, ” Pictet’s Ducrozet Organizations: Reuters, European Central Bank, Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, Danske Bank, Generali Investments, Treasury, Aviva Investors, Pictet Wealth Management, Aviva Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Austrian

☆ Analysis-For traders, September's ECB move is far from clear cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File PhotoData on Thursday showed euro zone inflation held at 5.3% in August rather than dropping. Another inflation hawk, Austrian central bank chief Robert Holzmann, said the ECB could deliver “another hike or two”. Overall money supply in the bloc contracted in July for the first time since 2010, demonstrating the extent to which ECB policy has tightened financial conditions. And even if investors are divided on September’s decision, the consensus is that the ECB will be done raising rates soon. Longer-term, markets expect the ECB to start cutting rates by the second quarter of 2024.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Kai Pfaffenbach, Piet Christiansen, ’ indecisiveness, ” Christiansen, Isabel Schnabel, Robert Holzmann, ”, Mauro Valle, Valle, Edward Hutchings, Frederik Ducrozet, Aviva’s Hutchinson, ” Pictet’s Ducrozet Organizations: Reuters, European Central Bank, Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, Danske Bank, Generali Investments, Treasury, Aviva Investors, Pictet Wealth Management Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Austrian

Yet a sharp drawdown in the excess savings created by COVID-19 could be a curve ball that slams into bullish sentiment. U.S. excess savings have fallen to around $500 billion from around $2.1 trillion in August 2021, the San Francisco Federal Reserve estimates. In Europe, Deutsche Bank reckons excess savings in Sweden, struggling to contain a property slump, have dwindled. Reuters GraphicsRUNNING OUTDefinitions for excess savings differ, but economists generally agree that this means savings that went beyond trend levels during the pandemic. Cardano chief economist Shweta Singh said U.S. pandemic excess savings are likely to be depleted by year-end.

Persons: Rachel Adams, Janus Henderson, Oliver Blackbourn, Shweta Singh, Guy Miller, Jamie Dimon, Ben, Eren Osman, Arbuthnot Latham, Janus Henderson's Blackbourn, U.S . Russell, Russell, Goldman Sachs, Blackbourn, Zurich's Miller, Simon Bell, Guilluame Paillat, Paillat, Naomi Rovnick, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Oxford, REUTERS, San Francisco Federal, Deutsche Bank, Reuters, Insurance Group, Ryanair, JPMorgan, Unilever, U.S ., London's, Bank of, Aviva, Thomson Locations: Britain, London, China, Europe, U.S, Sweden, United States, downturns, Australia

☆ Global shares slip, dollar soars vs yen on BoJ policy expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 19, 2023. The yen weakened 1.19% to 141.77 per dollar, while the dollar index , a measure of the greenback against major trading currencies, rose 0.31%. "None of them are happening with massive severity, but the longer we go on with higher rates, more and more that's going to come through," he said. BOJ policymakers prefer to scrutinize more data to ensure wages and inflation keep rising before changing yield control policy, five sources familiar with the matter said. "Markets were building up expectations which now look unlikely to play out," said Guillaume Paillat, a multi-asset manager at Aviva Investors.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, BoJ, Dow, Garrett Melson, Mullarkey, Patrick Spencer, Guillaume Paillat, Brent, Herbert Lash, Naomi Rovnick, Stella Qiu, Conor Humphries, David Holmes, Marguerita Choy, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Fed, ECB, Reuters, Bank of Japan, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Nasdaq, Investment, Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc, SLC Management, Baird, Microsoft, Apple, NYSE, Aviva Investors, Treasury, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Boston, London, MSCI's U.S, Europe, China, Sydney

Gold prices slipped as the dollar rebounded to its highest level in more than a week as investors prepare for next week's big central bank policy meetings, including the BoJ, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. The yen weakened 1.13% to 141.68 per dollar, while the dollar index , a measure of the greenback against major trading currencies, rose 0.36%. BoJ policymakers prefer to scrutinize more data to ensure wages and inflation keep rising before changing yield control policy, five sources familiar with the matter said. The report added there was no consensus within the central bank and the decision could still be a close call. As Japanese inflation has stayed above the BoJ's target, traders have bet on the central bank ditching its yield curve control program, a move likely to cause the yen to strengthen.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, BoJ, Garrett Melson, Patrick Spencer, Spencer, you've, Guillaume Paillat, Brent, Herbert Lash, Naomi Rovnick, Stella Qiu, Conor Humphries, David Holmes, Marguerita Choy Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Fed, ECB, Reuters, Bank of Japan, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Investment, Nasdaq, Baird, Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc, NYSE, Aviva Investors, Treasury, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Boston, Europe, China, London

Markets fell at the start of the new trading week as investors remained jittery over the economic outlook. The benchmark Stoxx 600 index closed 1% lower Monday, with almost all sectors in negative territory. "In that time, I think investors have really struggled to build any love for the rally. Asia-Pacific markets traded lower as investors digested China's central bank decision to cut its one-year and five-year loan prime rate. U.S. markets were closed for the Juneteenth holiday on Monday, but stock futures ticked lower overnight as investors looked ahead to a shortened week of trading.

Persons: Sunil Krishnan, Krishnan, CNBC's, That's Organizations: European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, Aviva Investors Locations: Asia, Pacific

☆ Why a European stock index is crushing its US peers
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

By comparison, the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the United States has climbed 2%. Those “growth” stocks gave investors a stake in firms that were on track to expand their businesses quickly and generate hefty returns. Now, investors are more drawn to “value” stocks: companies thought to be trading at a discount based on their financial performance. That’s been a “near-perfect combination” for European stocks to beat their US peers, he added. Economists at the Fed predict the United States will fall into a “mild” recession as a result of the recent banking crisis.

☆ Aviva Investors: This has been a very unloved rally so far
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAviva Investors: This has been a very unloved rally so farSunil Krishnan, head of multi-asset funds at Aviva Investors, discusses banking turmoil, earnings revisions and where stocks could trade for the rest of this year.

U.S. Treasury yields extended a slide after data showed March U.S. consumer sentiment fell for the first time in four months. Credit Suisse's chief executive said on Friday the bank was working hard to stem customer outflows, although this could take time. The STOXX 600 (.STOXX) index fell 2.21%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3) dropped 22.85 points, or 1.31%. The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield , which is sensitive to shifts in interest rate expectations, fell to 3.9835% compared with a previous close of 4.13%. The benchmark German 10-year yield fell to 2.099% versus 2.243% previously .

Still, analysts say the worry about a possible banking crisis is far from over. Credit Suisse's chief executive said on Friday the bank was working hard to stem customers outflows, although this could take time. At 0944 GMT, the MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, was up 0.4% on the day. The central bank's supervisory board met on Friday to discuss stress and vulnerabilities in the euro zone banking sector. The Australian dollar, seen as a liquid proxy for risk appetite, was up 0.7% on the day at $0.6705 .

☆ Aviva boosts investor payouts after profit beat
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Iain Withers | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The British insurer and asset manager said it had paid more than 5 billion pounds to investors since 2021, including a final dividend of 20.7 pence per share for 2022. The FTSE 100 company reported a 35% rise in 2022 operating profit from continuing operations to 2.2 billion pounds, up from 1.6 billion pounds the previous year. Aviva made an accounting loss of 1.1 billion pounds, compared to a 2 billion pound profit the previous year, which it blamed on adverse market movements in 2022. Following a pension scheme payment and investor payouts, this fell to an estimated 196%, the company said. The company's general insurance gross written premiums increased 8% to 9.7 billion pounds, while its fund arm Aviva Investors reported external net flows of 1.3 billion pounds, down from 3.3 billion the prior year.

☆ Aviva hikes investor payouts after bumper operating profit beat
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The British insurer and asset manager said it had paid more than 5 billion pounds to investors since 2021, just topping Cevian's demand for that figure to be returned over the year. Aviva reported a 35% rise in 2022 operating profit from continuing operations to 2.2 billion pounds, up from 1.6 billion pounds the previous year and trumping analyst forecasts. However, it made an accounting loss of 1.1 billion pounds, compared to a 2 billion pound profit the previous year, which it blamed on adverse market movements in 2022. Following a pension scheme payment and investor payouts, this fell to an estimated 196%, the company said. The company's general insurance gross written premiums increased 8% to 9.7 billion pounds, while its fund arm Aviva Investors reported external net flows of 1.3 billion pounds, down from 3.3 billion the prior year.

Fund managers say they are fielding more queries from clients about the odds of an invasion of Taiwan by China. Russia's invasion of Ukraine early last year has also made investors more wary of war risk, analysts said. Goldman Sachs' Cross-Strait Risk Index, which gauges the intensity of geopolitical risk between Taiwan and mainland China, hit a record high last August after then-U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan. Jordan Stuart, client portfolio manager at Federated Hermes, says he cut China exposure last year while holding onto some small stocks that can "fly under the radar". The Taiwan Strait is a major route for ships transporting goods from East Asia to the United States and Europe.

[1/3] A man wearing a protective mask is seen inside the Shanghai Stock Exchange building, as the country is hit by a new coronavirus outbreak, at the Pudong financial district in Shanghai, China, February 28, 2020. REUTERS/Aly Song/File PhotoNEW YORK/SINGAPORE, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Many large money managers are steering clear of Chinese assets, missing out on the nation's post-COVID stock market rally in the latest example of strategic concerns trumping juicy returns. "For our investors who might have that concern, there are plenty of other opportunities away from China." The concern flagged by some is whether this is part of a structural downgrade for Chinese assets, said Will Malcolm, a Singapore-based portfolio manager at Aviva Investors. That could attract cash in a hurry, but the behaviour of large investors so far suggests that a large sentiment shift will be needed.

☆ Analysis: The deep freeze over UK assets is thawing
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"This does suggest a possible inflection point in sentiment towards UK assets," said Nick Kissack, a UK portfolio manager at Schroders, which manages roughly $910 billion of client funds. "We saw extreme levels of risk aversion," in September, he added, while "the risk premium for UK assets has come down since." That, in short, is an outlook of higher global interest rates, weak growth and high inflation. Reuters GraphicsHowever, analysts expect the FTSE 100's rise to falter with a stronger global growth outlook combined with waning energy inflation. "The UK is the standout global economy where growth prospects have not improved," said Baylee Wakefield, multi-asset portfolio manager at Aviva Investors, who expects gilts to continue outperforming Treasuries.

Below are the events, trends and topics investors expect to shape the outlook for emerging markets next year. "The economic downturns along with the aggressive monetary tightening and geopolitical and commodity shocks that induce them will be temporarily painful in financial and emerging markets," said David Folkerts-Landau, group chief economist at Deutsche Bank. Globally, the war has transformed energy markets and inflation pressures, food security and geopolitical risk perception - factors that are often more keenly felt in emerging economies. "There's not actually a lot of debt maturing next year," said Carmen Altenkirch, emerging markets sovereign analyst at Aviva Investors. 6/ TURKEY ELECTIONSPresident Tayyip Erdogan could face the biggest political challenge of his two decades in power as Turks head to the ballot box in the most high-profile vote in emerging markets.

LONDON, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The Bank of England looks like it's being outed as the weakest link. The primary reason was that two of the nine-person MPC voted to end the Bank's rate rise campaign right away as the recession the Bank thinks is already underway will get entrenched next year. But with the median economist forecast for the Bank's terminal rate somewhere around 4.25%, markets still seem aggressively positioned for a hawkish surprise and the pound may be more vulnerable to that revision as the winter progresses. Significantly, the implied Fed terminal rate edged higher to 4.9% after its policy setpiece on Wednesday - even if is still below the 5.1% the Fed indicated. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

☆ VIEW Bank of England raises rates to 3.5%, says inflation has peaked
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The Bank of England on Thursday raised interest rates by a widely expected 50 basis points (bps) to 3.50%, in its ninth straight increase - and its eighth this year. UK rates began rising in December 2021, making the BoE the first of the world's major central banks to kick off a monetary policy-tightening cycle. MONEY MARKETS: Interest rate swaps showed investors expected rates to peak at 4.46% by next August, compared with an anticipated terminal rate of 4.53% just before the decision. Their own numbers have been pointing to a recession for a little while, and they've still materially hiked interest rates. EDWARD HUTCHINGS, HEAD OF RATES, AVIVA INVESTORS, LONDON:"The Bank of England duly delivered on financial markets expectations of a 0.50% hike.

Summary Hawkish central banks dampen hopes of peak ratesEuro zone bonds yields surgeHawkish message a reality check for markets -analystsLONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Forget a year-end rally in financial markets. The message from major central banks is loud and clear: the battle to tame inflation is far from over. Central banks in the United States, euro zone, Britain and Switzerland met on Wednesday and Thursday and all slowed the pace of aggressive rate moves. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said to expect more 50-basis-point rate increases for a period of time and that the ECB was not "pivoting" yet. Such sharp moves loosen the very financial conditions that central banks are trying to tighten in order to contain inflation.

SummarySummary Companies G10 central banks deliver 350 bps of rate hikes last monthEmerging central banks tightened policy by 400 bpsHiking cycle coming to an end in many developing economiesLONDON, Dec 2 (Reuters) - The pace and scale of rate hikes delivered by central banks in November picked up speed again as policy makers around the globe battle decade high inflation. Central banks overseeing six of the 10 most heavily traded currencies delivered 350 basis points (bps) of rate hikes between them last month. The European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Japan did not hold rate setting meetings in November. The latest moves have brought total rate hikes in 2022 from G10 central banks to 2,400 bps. "Central banks' determination to bring down inflation suggests that policy rates need to go higher still."

☆ Aviva pledges regular investor payouts as premiums rise
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Carolyn Cohn | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Jefferies analysts have previously said they expect Aviva to make recurring 250 million pound ($289 million) pay-outs. Aviva has already returned 4.75 billion pounds to investors after raising 7.5 billion in a string of asset sales since Blanc became CEO in July 2020. Cevian in the past called on Aviva to return five billion pounds to shareholders by the end of 2022. Aviva reported a 10% rise in general insurance gross written premiums in the first nine months of the year to 7.2 billion pounds. The value of new business in its UK and Ireland life division rose 46% over the same period to 466 million pounds.

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